Donald Trump will delivers the annual State of the Union address tonight at 9 p.m. ET, and Polymarket traders have already turned the speech into a full trading event: almost $3 million in combined volume across markets have been traded.
The speech comes at a turbulent moment for the president.
The Supreme Court struck down his sweeping IEEPA tariffs last Friday, forcing a hasty pivot to a replacement 15% global tariff that kicked in this morning.
His economic approval rating has sunk to 39%. A partial DHS shutdown drags into its second week.
And tensions with Iran continue to escalate, with the White House reportedly weighing military strikes.
What He’ll Say
Over $1 million has been bet on the market tracking specific words and phrases.
“America” 25+ times is at 95%. “Israel” or “Gaza” at 93%. “AI” mentioned at least twice is at 77%. “Hottest” at 84%.
The more interesting action is in what traders think he won’t say. “Crypto” or “Bitcoin” (CRYPTO: BTC) is priced at just 27%, despite the administration’s friendliness toward digital assets, which could be because of crypto’s recent collapse.
“Biden” 10+ times is at 38%. “Gold Card” at 39%. “Jobs” 20+ times is at 69%.
Who He’ll Name-Drop
A separate market, with nearly half a million in volume tracks individuals.
Biden leads at 95%. Maduro at 88%. Charlie Kirk at 55%.
The geopolitical names matter for portfolios.
“President Xi” is at 59% and “Putin” at 49%.
Any mention of Xi could move China-exposed names like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Hawkish foreign policy talk tends to benefit defense-adjacent plays like Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR).
Elon Musk getting a shoutout is priced at just 22%, perhaps a result of their public falling out.
While Judy Shelton sits at 2%, enthusiasts will be listening closely for hints that she could be set to replace Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair nominee.
The Side Bets
A speech length market has attracted $280,000 in volume. 100+ minutes leads at 48%.
Savvy traders should be aware that all of Trump’s previous SOTU addresses have been under 100 minutes, however Trump told reporters Monday it would be “a long speech.”
Tie color: red at 80%, blue at just 6%.
An attendance market has Nicki Minaj at 20%, Jensen Huang at 3%, Judy Shelton at 4% and Musk physically showing up at 20%. More than two dozen Democrats are expected to boycott.
Image: Shutterstock
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