Anthropic’s Claude climbed to No. 1 on Apple’s App Store over the weekend, fueled by backlash after OpenAI stepped in to replace the startup as the Pentagon’s AI partner.

The shift hands Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) a quiet win. The e-commerce giant has poured $8 billion into Anthropic since 2023, making it one of the startup’s largest outside backers.

Three Ways Amazon Wins

First, Anthropic’s valuation has exploded to $380 billion following a $30 billion Series G round. Amazon’s $8 billion investment is now worth roughly $13.8 billion on the books.

With an IPO planned for this year, that stake is expected to grow further.

Second, Bank of America analyst Justin Post sees Anthropic’s growing AI demand adding up to $6 billion in incremental revenue in 2026, potentially adding 4 percentage points to overall AWS growth.

Citizens analyst Andrew Boone is more bullish, estimating Anthropic could generate $10 billion in AWS revenue for 2026 alone.

And third, AWS has been playing catch-up in the AI race against Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) Azure and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google Cloud. Amazon’s stock underperformed peers in 2025. Now the hottest AI app runs on its cloud.

Claude Is The Best Model And Polymarket Expects That To Continue

Claude occupies the first two places on the AI model leaderboard, and Polymarket prices the chance that they continue to have the top model in June at 39%, with Google in 2nd place with 35%, and OpenAi in third with 12%.

Polymarket traders think an IPO is very unlikely before June, pricing it at just 6%. On Kalshi, the race to IPO between the two AI heavyweights is currently neck and neck.

The broader AI Bubble Burst contract prices a 15% chance of an industry downturn by year-end on $2 million in volume. Resolution requires three of six triggers within 90 days, including Nvidia falling 50% from its all-time high or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy.

Free users on Claude have increased over 60% since January, with daily sign-ups tripling since November. The surge in demand crashed Claude’s servers multiple times on Monday.

Image: Shutterstock

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