President Donald Trump made it a centerpiece of his return to power: gasoline below $2 a gallon, delivered through “drill, baby, drill” and American energy dominance.

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran is now stress-testing that pledge in real time.

The national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline hit $3.25 on Thursday, according to AAA, pushing fuel costs to their highest level in more than a year.

RBOB gasoline futures — the benchmark wholesale contract traded on the NYMEX that typically leads pump prices — are now trading near $2.60 per gallon, a surge of roughly 55% since the start of the year.

The rally’s speed is already rivaling the spike seen in the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The persistence is even more unusual.

Gasoline futures have now posted gains for nine consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak since RBOB contracts began trading in 1985.

But something beneath the energy market is starting to flash a warning for the broader economy.

The United States Gasoline Fund (NYSE:UGA), which tracks RBOB futures, has outperformed the West Texas Intermediate light crude — tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO).

When refined fuels begin rising faster than the raw commodity, it typically signals tightening downstream supply and rising inflation transmission into the real economy.

For consumers, that means the road to $2 gasoline — a central promise of President Donald Trump's energy messaging — is already becoming harder to reach.

For markets, the signal is more structural.

Gasoline's Record Streak Is Testing Trump's $2 Fuel Promise

Inflation Is On The Rise, Goldman Sachs Warns

In a Thursday note, Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs warned that the Iran conflict is already feeding into global inflation dynamics.

"The main economic impact for most countries is that the recent rise in oil prices to around $80 per barrel will boost inflation and slow growth," Briggs wrote.

The bank estimates that if oil prices were to temporarily surge to $100 per barrel, global headline inflation could increase by 0.7 percentage points, while global economic growth could slow by 0.4 percentage points.

For Europe and Asia, the inflation shock would likely be stronger.

The U.S. remains partially insulated, thanks to domestic production — but not immune.

“Global central banks have historically not responded to oil price shocks, on average, but have modestly tightened rates when inflation is high and/or oil price shocks are large,” Briggs added.

The Fed Is Watching The Pump

For policymakers, gasoline prices complicate an already fragile disinflation narrative.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said one or two rate cuts later this year could still be possible — if inflation continues to cool.

But the geopolitical shock changes the equation.

"Before Iran, it seemed like things were gently heading in the right direction," Kashkari said.

Energy inflation has historically been one of the few forces capable of interrupting that trajectory quickly.

Central banks rarely react directly to oil spikes. But when energy shocks arrive while inflation is already elevated, policy tends to tighten rather than ease.

Is inflation about to get its "temporary 2.0" moment?

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