The prevailing market sentiment that artificial intelligence (AI) is “unwinding” is fundamentally incorrect, according to EMJ Caital’s Eric Jackson, who argues that capital is instead flowing deeper into a complex energy and capital cycle.

Shift In Capital Structure

While retail sentiment may suggest a cooling period, institutional movement tells a different story. “Everyone is arguing about AI demand. That's not the real story anymore,” said Jackson.

Jackson points to Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS) raising $3.7 billion in convertible debt and heavy call buying across AI infrastructure players like Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ:BTDR), and Core Scientific Inc. (NASDAQ:CORZ) as evidence that the sector is maturing rather than retreating.

“Capital isn't leaving AI. It's flowing deeper into it,” Jackson noted, emphasizing that the market is moving away from the simple question of “who has AI” to a more brutal assessment of “who survives the structure.”

This transition marks a shift where software is being “questioned” while physical infrastructure and debt-backed expansion become the primary drivers of value.

The Energy And Supply Wall

The narrative that AI is a standard tech cycle is being challenged by physical constraints. As diesel prices climb and coal plants remain online to prevent blackouts, the bottleneck for AI growth has shifted from interest to availability.

Nvidia has recently signaled that “supply—not demand” is the primary constraint for the industry. This evolution has transformed AI into a resource war. Data center buildouts and nuclear energy integration are accelerating to meet the power-hungry needs of massive compute clusters.

“It's becoming an energy + capital cycle at the same time,” Jackson warned. “And those don't unwind cleanly.”

Exposing The Fragile

For investors, the current volatility isn’t a sign of a bubble bursting, but a filter for quality. Jackson argues that AI hasn’t “killed” companies yet; rather, it has “exposed who was fragile.”

As infrastructure consolidates, the winners are those who secure the “rails”—much like Mastercard Inc.'s (NYSE:MA) recent move into stablecoin infrastructure.

The demand remains the same, but the industry is now identifying a new tier of “different winners” capable of weathering a high-debt, energy-intensive landscape.

Here’s a list of a few AI-linked ETFs that investors can consider.

ETF Name6-Month PerformanceYTD PerformnaceOne Year Performance
iShares US Technology ETF (NYSE:IYW)0.90%-5.31%30.00%
Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (NYSE:FTEC)1.02%-4.41%28.65%
First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSE:FDN)-13.93%-9.78%6.44%
iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (NYSE:IGM)0.63%-3.69%30.91%
iShares Global Tech ETF (NYSE:IXN)6.25%0.29%33.38%
Defiance Quantum ETF (NASDAQ:QTUM)9.95%0.85%38.59%
Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS:MAGS)-4.60%-7.95%29.54%

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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