Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang made two China-bullish moves in 48 hours at GTC 2026: restarting H200 chip sales and calling the open-source AI agent OpenClaw “definitely the next ChatGPT.”

Chinese AI stocks surged, but prediction market traders aren’t fully buying it.

H200 Is Back

Huang told reporters Tuesday that Nvidia has H200 purchase orders from Chinese customers and is restarting manufacturing. “Our supply chain is getting fired up,” he said.

The reversal has been swift. As recently as Feb. 25, CFO Colette Kress told analysts Nvidia had “yet to generate any revenue” from China.

Beijing granted licenses to ByteDance, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), and Tencent Holdings (OTC:TCEHY) to buy more than 400,000 H200 units collectively.

But the deal comes with strings; U.S. inspections, a 25% duty, and a possible cap of 75,000 chips per customer.

OpenClaw Sends Chinese AI Stocks To Record Highs

Huang told CNBC’s Jim Cramer that OpenClaw is “the most successful open-sourced project in the history of humanity.” MiniMax surged 22% and Zhipu jumped 14% in Hong Kong on Wednesday.

Nvidia launched NemoClaw, an enterprise version of the platform, at GTC.

The same Chinese customers buying H200 hardware are the ones building on OpenClaw, a feedback loop where software adoption drives chip demand, but also a single point of political risk.

The Groq Wildcard

China isn’t the only revenue stream the market may be underpricing.

In the same Cramer interview, Huang confirmed Groq Version 3 is already in production and will handle roughly 25% of Nvidia’s workloads.

Cramer noted the December acquisition will soon generate a “huge amount of money.” None of that is included in the $1 trillion Blackwell and Vera Rubin projection through 2027.

For all of Huang’s trillion-dollar projections and expanding hardware empire, prediction markets aren’t convinced the music will play forever.

What Bettors Think

Polymarket’s “AI bubble burst” contract prices a 21% chance of an industry downturn by Dec. 31, 2026, on more than $2 million in volume. The contract defines a burst partly as NVDA falling 50% from its all-time high.

Polymarket thinks there is a 69% Nvidia retains its status as largest company by market cap, at the end of this year.

One in five bettors with real money on the line think the AI trade could unwind this year, even as Huang projects $1 trillion-plus through 2027.

While the stock remains flat today at $182, the gap between Huang's trillion-dollar roadmap and the skepticism of the prediction markets is widening. For now, the supply chain is ‘fired up’; but one in five bettors is already looking for the exit.

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