Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has tumbled below $70,000 as equities continue to slide lower while oil prices surge.

Bearish Structure Remains

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen maintains a cautious outlook, arguing that recent upside is likely a countertrend rally rather than the start of a new bull market.

He pointed to historical patterns where Bitcoin grinds higher during bear phases before breaking down to new lows.

Cowen also highlighted the recurring four-year cycle, noting that in past midterm years, including 2014, 2018 and 2022, early-year lows were not the final bottom.

Bitcoin may still be forming a lower high, he said, leaving room for further downside in the coming months.

While short-term rallies are possible, Cowen cited a challenging macro backdrop, including tight monetary policy, late-cycle conditions and elevated energy costs, as factors that could keep pressure on prices.

"Why fade the four-year cycle?" he said, urging investors to respect historical trends until proven otherwise.

Inflation Concerns Complicate Outlook

Cowen said the Federal Reserve faces a difficult position following the FOMC meeting, with mixed economic signals clouding the outlook.

He pointed to renewed inflation pressures, including a higher-than-expected Producer Price Index and rising energy prices, particularly oil. At the same time, he said the labour market is weakening, with declining job openings, slower hiring and employment growth nearing recessionary levels.

Although some expect rate cuts, Cowen said markets are increasingly pricing in a delay, with some even considering the possibility of further hikes if inflation persists.

The uncertainty, he added, could keep liquidity conditions tight and continue to weigh on risk assets.

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