New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu added Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) to the firm’s best ideas list for 2026 on Thursday, arguing the stock could double from current levels by 2027.

The thesis rests on a combination of earnings revisions, a compressed multiple, and Nvidia’s plan to return 50% of its free cash flow through buybacks and dividends. Ferragu said Nvidia’s $1 trillion cumulative revenue guidance for Blackwell and Rubin products is “in the bag” by the end of 2027 and that the market isn’t pricing in enough enthusiasm.

He projects more than $20 in earnings per share and rates the stock a Buy with a $275 price target, implying roughly 53% upside from Thursday’s price around $180.

Twelve Notes In Two Days

The call arrives amid a flood of analyst activity tied to Nvidia’s annual GTC developer conference in San Jose this week.

Rosenblatt’s Kevin Cassidy raised his target from $300 to $325, now the highest on the Street. Raymond James bumped to $323 from $291 while maintaining a Strong Buy.

Both cited the $1 trillion GPU revenue outlook through 2027.

Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon recently called Nvidia the cheapest it has ever been relative to the broader chip sector. The stock trades at roughly 17x forward earnings, below the S&P 500 average, despite 93% of covering analysts maintaining Buy

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket bettors are pricing 67% odds that Nvidia ends 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, ahead of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) at 15%. That contract has drawn $1.2 million in volume.

The platform’s AI Bubble Burst contract sits at 20% for a downturn by year-end, requiring triggers like Nvidia falling 50% from its all-time high. One trigger condition is essentially a bet against the exact thesis Ferragu is laying out.

The Bear Case

The multiple may be low for a reason.

NVDA has traded sideways since its October all-time high of $212, settling into a $175-to-$197 range, even as the company posted record quarterly revenue of $68.13 billion in fiscal Q4.

The market appears to be pricing in deceleration risk, not ignoring value.

Ferragu sees 17x forward earnings as a gift. Some bears argue the discount could prove justified if inference revenue growth slows and hyperscaler capex cycles begin to normalize.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives flagged Vera Rubin shipment timing and supply chain visibility as the details that may resolve the stalemate. Until those details arrive, some investors may continue to treat the stock more like a value trap than a growth compounder.

Meanwhile Elon Musk said Saturday that Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) “Terafab” AI chip project launches in seven days, a reminder that Nvidia’s biggest customers are also its emerging competitors.

NVDA was trading around $178 today.

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