Fresh off the latest FOMC meeting, one thing is clear: the Fed isn't in a rush.
Jerome Powell made it known that rates are staying put for now. And while there's still a path to cuts later this year, it all hinges on how inflation behaves from here.
The wildcard? Geopolitics.
With the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, it's simply too early to tell how inflation and unemployment will shake out. Energy prices are already reacting. Supply chains could follow. And yet, despite all of that, Powell still described the economy as being on "solid footing."
That's the kind of backdrop we're heading into this earnings season with, stable on the surface, but full of uncertainty underneath.
But in markets like this, uncertainty doesn't eliminate opportunity—it just changes where to look.
Here are the three trades I’m looking at this earnings season.
How to Profit from Q2 Earnings Season
Between rising oil prices, the war in Iran, and a disappointing jobs report, investors have had plenty to process.
For traders, though, volatility isn't as scary. In fact, it's something that can be used to our advantage.
Why? Because during earnings season, volatility follows patterns. As earnings approach, uncertainty drives demand for options, pushing implied volatility higher and lifting prices before the report even hits.
And that's where I focus—the seven-day move before the report comes out, not after. That's what I call the "sweet spot," where the best opportunities show up.
The strategy is simple. Enter the trade even days before earnings and exit right before the report hits.
And right now, these are the three setups I'm focused on:
Annaly Capital is one of the most consistent names I've seen when it comes to pre-earnings moves.
Over the last four cycles, buying at-the-money call options about seven days before earnings has produced gains ranging from 34% to as high as 262%:
What makes this setup even more compelling is its seasonal strength. April has historically been one of its best-performing windows, which adds another layer of probability to the trade.
This isn't just an earnings play—it's a pattern stacking on top of a pattern.
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Celestica is a pure volatility play, and a strong one.
It delivered a 100%-win rate over the last four earnings cycles, with average returns around 81% during the pre-earnings window.
What stands out here is the consistency in implied volatility expansion. In recent cycles, options have surged anywhere from 99% to over 100% in just the week leading into earnings:
There's no seasonal tailwind here… just raw earnings-driven volatility. And sometimes, that's exactly what we want to see.
Microsoft might not look like a trader's stock at first glance—but during earnings season, it tells a very different story.
Over the last four cycles, this setup has produced some of the biggest moves in the group, with options gains ranging from 104% to as high as 252%:
On top of that, Microsoft also brings in a strong seasonal component. There's an established pattern showing 80% accuracy over a 16-day window from April to May.
That combination (liquidity, volatility, and seasonality) makes it one of the most powerful setups on this list.
Why This Still Works in Today's Market
Although things may feel uneasy in the markets right now, it doesn't mean the opportunities to grow your portfolio are lacking. You just need to know where to look (and what to avoid).
With rates holding steady, inflation still in play, and geopolitical risks rising, broad market direction is harder to predict than ever.
But individual stock behavior around earnings isn't. And the proof is in the data.
By focusing on pre-earnings patterns and volatility expansion, you can sidestep the chaos and trade what's actually measurable.
No guessing, no panic trading, just a repeatable edge you can rely on every cycle.
Photo: g0d4ather from Shutterstock
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