The S&P 500 fell for the second straight session on Thursday, closing down 0.27% at 6,606.49, but pulled sharply off its lows after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was helping the U.S. open the Strait of Hormuz and that the conflict may end sooner than many fear.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bullish heading into Friday’s open. The “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on March 20?” market is at 62% “Up” and 38% “Down,” with $10,964 in early trading volume.

Why That Number Matters

Netanyahu’s comments moved markets quickly. WTI crude fell sharply in post-settle trading after he spoke, giving stocks a lift off their session lows. The diplomatic signal is the clearest the market has received since the conflict began approaching its fourth week.

Six G7 allies — the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan — also issued a joint statement Thursday expressing readiness to contribute to safe passage through the Strait, adding weight to the idea that a resolution framework is forming.

WTI crude futures fell below $94 per barrel on Friday after climbing as high as $101 in the previous session, while Brent crude futures were below $107 per barrel after surging to nearly $120 in the previous session.

The Bear Countercase

The S&P 500 is heading into Friday’s session down 0.4% on the week, on pace for its fourth consecutive losing week. WTI crude remains more than 48% higher this month, even after Thursday’s pullback, and Iran struck Qatar’s LNG export facility while threatening further attacks on energy infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy’s CEO and state minister for energy affairs, Saad al-Kaabi, told Reuters on Thursday.

Netanyahu’s comments eased fear, but the Strait remains largely closed.

At 2.56 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were down 0.06% at 6,655.75.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 6,583.12 — below Wednesday’s close of 6,624.70, as the session began under continued pressure from the prior day’s PPI shock and Fed commentary. “Down” resolved correctly on $188,635 in traded volume.

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