Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is hovering near $70,000 amid ETF outflows and weak sentiment, with one analyst warning the current pattern may mirror past bear markets.

Short-Term Rally Or Deeper Drop?

In a Mar. 20 podcast, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin appears to be following a familiar cycle seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

He described a recurring pattern in which Bitcoin bottoms in February, rallies into March and then weakens, often leading to another leg lower.

While a short-term move toward the 21-week exponential moving average is possible, Cowen said further downside remains the more likely outcome.

He pointed to 2014 as a key comparison, when Bitcoin formed multiple lows throughout the year, including in February, April and October. The current setup, he said, may indicate the market is still early in a broader downtrend.

Historically, April has often marked periods of capitulation, reinforcing the risk of another decline.

Bear Market Psychology

Cowen said bear markets are often defined by repeated rallies that give investors false hope before another breakdown.

He added that true market bottoms typically form only after widespread capitulation and deeply bearish sentiment, conditions he believes have not fully materialized.

Overall, Cowen maintained a bearish outlook, expecting Bitcoin to continue a pattern of brief recoveries followed by deeper declines before forming a more durable bottom.

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