Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated a cautious stance on the company following its fourth-quarter 2025 results, citing solid progress at Thacker Pass alongside ongoing execution risks.

Ives maintained a Neutral rating and $8 price target, describing the quarter as constructive with continued advancement in engineering, procurement, and construction. He identified 2026 as a pivotal year as the company moves into peak buildout.

He also highlighted the strategic importance of Thacker Pass to U.S. supply chains. Phase 1 targets 40,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, with long-term expansion potential to 160,000 tonnes supported by a large resource base and long mine life.

“China’s stranglehold on ~80% of cathode production, ~90% of anode production, and ~70% of global battery cell output has elevated Thacker Pass from a mining development story into a national security asset,” Ives said in the report.

Strong Liquidity and Funding Position

From a financial perspective, Ives noted that Lithium Americas exited 2025 with $905.6 million in cash and equivalents, positioning it well to fund ongoing construction.

He emphasized the strength of the company’s financing structure, including the $2.23 billion DOE loan, GM’s $945 million investment and 38% joint venture stake, and Orion’s $250 million contribution.

He also highlighted that the company has already drawn $867 million from the DOE facility, while equity raises and note conversions have further strengthened liquidity.

Capex Ramp and 2026 Milestones

Looking ahead, Ives pointed to a significant ramp in spending, with 2026 Phase 1 capex expected between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion, alongside additional development and interest costs.

He outlined key milestones for the year, including infrastructure delivery, high-voltage commissioning in the second quarter of 2026, major construction completion by the third quarter of 2026, and initial plant commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Valuation and Key Risks

Ives said valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach but maintained a cautious view due to risks including construction delays, tariff exposure, and broader execution challenges.

LAC Price Action: Lithium Americas shares were down 4.99% at $3.80 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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