Political risk guru Ian Bremmer has banned Eurasia Group employees from betting on Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction markets.

Bremmer’s firm advises institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds, said prediction markets are “corrosive for civil society, probably more dangerous than social media for democracy” and represent a “clear conflict” for anyone pursuing objective analysis on global affairs.

He also said that other US political leaders will be sharing similar thoughts in the coming weeks.

The political pressure is already building from multiple directions. Senators Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-Utah) introduced bipartisan legislation today targeting prediction market sports betting at the federal level, directly aimed at Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S. platforms.

Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi last week for allegedly operating an unlicensed gambling business.

The Integrity Blitz

Polymarket published enhanced market integrity rules across its DeFi platform and CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange last Thursday.

After a year of insider trading controversies, class action lawsuits, and growing bipartisan hostility in Washington, the rules read like a platform trying to get ahead of the crackdown.

Prediction markets have not had a clear framework for what “inside information” means before.

The stock market has the concept of nonpublic information, but the idea doesn’t easily translate when the underlying event is a war, an earnings call, or a celebrity’s weekend plans.

The updated rules define three types of prohibited insider trading.

  • You can’t trade on stolen confidential information about an event’s outcome.
  • You can’t act on tips from someone who had a duty to keep that information private.
  • Anyone with enough authority or influence to affect the outcome of an event is barred from trading on it. That rule would cover everyone from military officials to YouTube editors.

Spoofing, wash trading, and front-running are also now explicitly banned.

Enforcement may prove tricky. Polymarket’s DeFi platform does not require KYC verification, relying instead on blockchain transparency and wallet-level bans rather than identity-based policing.

Wall Street Is Already Moving

Bremmer isn’t the only one drawing lines. According to Bloomberg, Point72 Asset Management and Balyasny Asset Management have both banned employees from trading on prediction markets in personal accounts.

The hedge fund bans, the Eurasia Group policy, and the Schiff-Curtis bill all arrived within the same week.

The crackdown may end up helping the companies prediction markets nearly killed.

Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), both down roughly 50% over the past year, could benefit if legislative action slows the platforms’ expansion.

CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) is already in the game, powering FanDuel’s Predicts app and hitting 100 million event contracts traded in its first eight weeks.

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