Cryptocurrency bettors boosted the odds of a U.S.–Iran truce after President Donald Trump shifted his stance from "hit and obliterate" to describing talks with Tehran as "good and productive."

Peace At Last?

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket saw odds of a ceasefire by April 15 rise from 30% to 35% in the past 24 hours, while chances of a truce by April 30 increased from 41% to 45%. Similarly, the probability of this happening by May-end rose 5 percentage points to 56%.

Over $38 million has been wagered on the outcome, which will be resolved after an “official ceasefire agreement” is reached, requiring public confirmation from both the U.S. government and the Iranian government that they have agreed to halt hostilities.

Meanwhile, the probability of the Iranian regime surviving the conflict climbed to 80%, while the likelihood of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, being removed before a ceasefire fell to 38%.

A Pakistan-Brokered Truce?

The spike comes after Trump said that the U.S. held "very good and productive conversations" with Iran and postponed all strikes on energy infrastructure for five days. The backpedaling came after he threatened to  "hit and obliterate" Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz wasn't reopened within 48 hours.

Iran's foreign ministry, however, denied any dialogue had taken place, saying Trump's announcement was designed to influence energy prices.

Reports indicated that Trump's advisers, including envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, were focusing on preparing for diplomacy. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Pakistan is positioning itself as the lead mediator, with its capital, Islamabad, as a potential venue for talks as early as this week.

Just before Trump’s remarks, several new Polymaket wallets surfaced, with no prior transaction history and all created simultaneously, wagering a cumulative $160,000 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, raising suspicion of insider trading.

Photo: Below the Sky via Shutterstock