(Editor’s note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, the lede, and the headline were updated in the story.)
U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday following Monday’s sharp resurgence. Futures of the major benchmark indices were lower.
President Donald Trump‘s Truth Social post on Monday said the U.S. and Iran have held “very good and productive talks” on resolving hostilities, and the strikes would be paused for the next five days.
However, senior Iranian officials rejected the claims. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a social media post on Monday that "no negotiations” happened with the U.S. and that Trump’s announcement was a way to manipulate markets.
Meanwhile, revised U.S. productivity figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 revealed a cooling efficiency landscape, with nonfarm business sector labor productivity growth marked down to a 1.8% annualized rate from the previously estimated 2.8%.
This downward revision was driven primarily by a 1.1-percentage-point drop in output, while unit labor costs surged by 4.4%—significantly higher than the initial 2.8% projection.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.35%, and the two-year bond was at 3.86%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing an 85.5% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged in its April meeting.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | -0.07% |
| S&P 500 | -0.05% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.07% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.01% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were lower in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was down 0.19% at $654.11, while the QQQ declined 0.17% to $587.00.
Stocks In Focus
Applied Optoelectronics
- Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) rose 4.16% in premarket on Tuesday after it announced that one of its major hyperscale customers placed an initial volume order for 800G single-mode data center transceivers totaling more than $53 million.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that AAOI maintains a strong price trend over the long, short, and medium terms.
Oracle
- Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) advanced by 0.62% after updating its AI Agent Studio for Fusion Applications with new features—including an Agentic Applications Builder, workflow orchestration, and ROI dashboards—to help organizations move beyond simple copilots toward autonomous, outcome-driven AI that can be measured for business value.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that ORCL maintains a weak trend in the short, long, and medium terms with a poor value ranking.
Tower Semiconductor And Coherent
- Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (NASDAQ:TSEM) was up 1.90%, and Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) gained 3.12% after TSEM announced a new silicon photonics milestone with COHR that could strengthen its position in next-generation AI and datacenter networking markets.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that TSEM maintains a strong price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a solid quality score.
Apollo Global Management
- Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO) tumbled 2.57% after Apollo Debt Solutions decided to restrict investor withdrawals from its $25 billion debt fund. It also announced a strategic investment in NSG Group, a leader in glass manufacturing.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that APO maintains a weak trend in the short, long, and medium terms, with a solid growth score.
GameStop
- GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) was 0.043% lower as analysts expected it to post quarterly earnings at 37 cents per share on revenue of $1.47 billion after the closing bell.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that GME maintains a weak price trend in the short and long terms but a strong trend in the medium term, with a solid growth score.
Cues From Last Session
Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Information Technology sectors led the market gains on Monday as all the sectors closed on a positive note.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Dow Jones | 1.38% | 46,208.47 |
| S&P 500 | 1.15% | 6,581.00 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1.38% | 21,946.76 |
| Russell 2000 | 2.29% | 2,494.23 |
Insights From Analysts
LPL Financial maintains a tactical neutral stance on equities, navigating a complex landscape defined by “accelerating AI-related disruption” and heightened geopolitical tension.
Despite the ongoing conflict in Iran and sharp increases in oil prices, the Strategic Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) remains encouraged by the “stock market's resilient track record during geopolitical crises.”
Rather than retreating, LPL is looking for opportunities to “add equities at lower levels” during short-term disruptions.
Regarding the broader economy, LPL highlights a “natural credit cycle” where rising rates are beginning to “discipline the market, force selectivity, and reset valuations.”
While private credit faces “liquidity mismatches” and “optimistic underwriting assumptions,” LPL does not forecast a systemic collapse. They note that “overall corporate debt-to-GDP levels have actually come down in recent years,” suggesting that current stresses represent a healthy repricing rather than a broad unwind.
Ultimately, LPL views these shifts as a necessary adjustment, famously noting that “when the tide goes out, you see who has been swimming naked”.
Upcoming Economic Data
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Tuesday.
- Nonfarm Productivity: Increased at a revised 1.8% annualized rate, down from the preliminary 2.8% estimate.
- Unit Labor Costs: Spiked to a 4.4% increase, reflecting a 6.3% rise in hourly compensation offset by modest productivity gains.
- Manufacturing Output: Productivity in the manufacturing sector fell 2.5%, as output dropped 2.8% against a minor 0.3% decrease in hours worked.
- March’s S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI will be released by 9:45 a.m., and Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr is scheduled to speak at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 2.05% to hover around $89.94 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.21% to hover around $4,397.60 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.26% higher at the 99.2120 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 3.57% higher at $70,908.29 per coin, as per the last 24 hours.
Asian markets closed higher on Tuesday as South Korea's Kospi, India’s Nifty 50, Japan's Nikkei 225, China’s CSI 300, Australia's ASX 200, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices rose. European markets were also higher in early trade.
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