A network of seven connected Polymarket wallets netted nearly $1 million betting on US and Israeli military strikes against Iran, winning 93% of five-figure wagers over a two-year stretch, according to a blockchain investigation by Bubblemaps.

Insider Betting: A Game-Changer For Prediction Markets

The accounts placed bets hours before Israeli strikes in October 2024, hours before US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025, and hours before the joint US-Israeli surprise attack on Feb. 28 that started the current war.

The suspected insider behind the network appears to still be active, having made over $100,000 predicting the February strike alone.

“All of this is strong signaling of insider activity,” Bubblemaps CEO Nick Vaiman told CNN.

Bubblemaps started with a previously flagged account linked to the IDF reservist indicted for using classified intelligence to bet on Polymarket.

On-chain analysis traced connections to six more wallets. All traded the same Iran strike contracts, often dominated the PnL leaderboards, and collectively posted an 83% win rate that rose to 93% on trades above $10,000. Total profit: roughly $967,000.

Most high-frequency traders hover just above 50%.

Why Regulatory Scrutiny Is Shaping Market Futures

Polymarket rushed out new insider trading rules Monday as bipartisan legislation from Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-Utah) targets the industry.

Polymarket now bans trades based on stolen confidential information and bars anyone who can influence an event’s outcome from related markets, and recently brought in Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) to monitor contracts for suspicious activity.

Kalshi is taking a different approach, rolling out preemptive screening tools built with integrity compliance firm IC360 to block athletes, coaches, referees, and political candidates at the point of trade.

The platform also added a whistleblower feature directly on its market pages.

The prediction market sector is building real Wall Street infrastructure.

Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) filed with the SEC to list binary options on the Nasdaq-100. Cboe Global Markets (BATS:CBOE) is targeting Q2 for a similar product. CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) already powers FanDuel’s Predicts app, and Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) distributes Kalshi contracts inside its brokerage app.

DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) has called the prediction market vertical a $10 billion revenue opportunity. But every insider trading scandal makes that thesis harder to sell to regulators and investors alike.

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