Three bills targeting prediction markets landed in Congress this month, but none of them are going anywhere, according to TD Cowen.

DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE:FLUT) jumped as much as 7% Monday after Senators John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, a bipartisan bill that would ban CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from listing sports or casino-style contracts.

The Three Bills

The Schiff-Curtis bill is the headliner but it’s not alone.

Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) introduced legislation on March 18 that would bar contracts on government actions, terrorism, and war.

Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) filed a third bill on March 11 to let states regulate prediction markets directly and impose insider trading bans.

TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg called all three “messaging bills.”

He sees no path for any of them to become law in this Congress. Even if they did pass, a presidential veto is highly likely, especially given that Donald Trump Jr. serves on the advisory boards of both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Congress lacks the two-thirds majority to override.

The Real Fight Is 2028

Seiberg went on to say that prediction market platforms appear to be making a calculated bet: get big enough over the next three years that the outcome of the 2028 presidential election won’t matter because the industry will be too entrenched to dismantle.

Seiberg said that strategy may not work because the opposition isn’t just coming from one side.

The Schiff-Curtis bill pairs a Utah conservative who opposes all gambling with a California Democrat defending tribal gaming sovereignty, and that kind of coalition could grow as more Democrats push back against the nationwide rollout and more Republicans frame this as a states’ rights fight over who gets to regulate sports betting.

If Republicans hold the White House in 2028, prediction markets likely keep their current runway under a friendly CFTC.

If Democrats win, the regulatory environment could shift fast.

Seiberg flagged the 2028 election as the “real threat” for the sector.

“It is why policy risk is high for prediction markets even if legislation this year will not advance,” he wrote.

What It Means For Sportsbook Stocks

Flutter has lost over half its value in 12 months.

DraftKings gapped down 13.5% after earnings in February, partly on prediction market fears.

Monday’s intraday spike faded by the close, but Seiberg’s note suggests the regulatory pressure on Kalshi and Polymarket is only getting started.

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