BYD Company (OTC:BYDDY) outsold Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) in Europe for the second straight month in February, registering 17,954 vehicles to Tesla’s 17,664.

Year-to-date, BYD leads by more than 10,000 units and is up 162% year-over-year. Tesla is essentially flat.

Now BYD is coming for Canada.

Canada Is Next

BYD is planning 20 branded dealerships in Canada within its first year, after Canada slashed its 100% tariff on Chinese-built EVs to 6.1% in January.

Three locations in the Greater Toronto Area are already under discussion, with Vancouver, Montreal, and Calgary next.

Tesla’s Canadian sales collapsed more than 60% in 2025 to roughly 18,000 units.

General Motors (NYSE:GM) overtook Tesla as Canada’s top-selling EV brand. BYD enters a market where the dominant player is wounded and affordable EVs are scarce.

Tesla has announced steep prices increases for its vehicles in Canada, a move that coincides with the expiration of Canada's federal EV incentive program.

Morningstar’s Michael Field told CNBC that Chinese automakers like BYD have a cost advantage that “may prove insurmountable.”

The European Numbers

BYD grabbed 1.8% EU market share in February, up from 0.6% a year ago.

Tesla managed 1.6%. That gap matters because the broader European BEV market is booming, hitting 18.8% share through February, up from 15.2%.

Tesla is somehow losing ground in a market that’s growing without it.

Full-year 2025 was already brutal: European registrations plunged 27.8%, with Germany down 48% and Sweden down 67%.

Musk’s embrace of far-right European politicians and his role leading DOGE have turned the Tesla brand toxic in key markets.

A Yale study estimated his political activities cost Tesla over 1 million U.S. sales alone. The damage in Europe, where anti-Musk sentiment runs even hotter, may be worse.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, the Street’s most prominent Tesla bull, has called Europe a “continuous headwind.”

What Prediction Markets Are Saying

Tesla reports Q1 deliveries in early April. On Polymarket, bettors are pricing a 53% probability the company delivers fewer than 350,000 vehicles globally.

According to Polymarket, Tesla has a 2% chance of being the largest company by market cap by the end of the year.

Prediction market traders are also bearish on Tesla’s product pipeline. Optimus has just a 9% chance of releasing by June 30, and the Robovan sits at 14% to open orders before 2027.

Musk has pitched robotaxis as Tesla’s future, but Polymarket gives the company just a 14% chance of launching a robotaxi service in California by June 30. Waymo is already operating in ten U.S. cities.

TSLA is trading at $376, down roughly 25% from its 52-week high of $498.83.

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