EXCLUSIVE: Petrochemical Crunch From Iran War Isn't Hitting Hospitals Yet—But Analysts Say Costs For Critical Medical Supplies Could Rise Within Weeks

The Strait of Hormuz disruption is adding cost pressure to medical supply chains through an indirect but significant channel: the petrochemical derivatives used to make pharmaceutical packaging and drug ingredients, according to analysts tracking the disruption.

The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran on Feb. 28, triggering a war that has now stretched into its 25th day with no clear path to de-escalation. Iran has signaled it is prepared to shut down the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has raised the threat level in the Gulf to critical. Oil markets are already reacting: Brent crude has surged past $100 a barrel and Goldman Sachs warns elevated prices could persist through 2027.

The Petrochemical Link

Strikes on Gulf refineries have set off a chain reaction in pharmaceutical supply chains, according to David Weeks, supply chain lead at Moody’s.

“These facilities produce key derivatives such as naphtha and methanol, which are important inputs for industries including pharmaceuticals,” Weeks told Benzinga.

Naphtha is commonly used in pharmaceutical packaging, while methanol is used in solvents for active pharmaceutical ingredient synthesis.

An estimated 18% of global methanol capacity has been affected by the Hormuz disruption, with US prices up 18% since the conflict began on Feb. 28, according to S&P Global Energy CERA data. The profit made from turning naphtha into industrial raw materials is at its highest point since early 2023, according to commodity trading house Alkagesta.

What Is At Risk

The products most directly affected are items encountered in virtually every hospital stay: the plastic bags used to administer IV antibiotics and cancer drugs, the tubing connecting them, the stoppers sealing medication vials, and the sterile wrapping around surgical instruments.

Kaitlyn Huissen, Vice President of Supply Chain Intelligence at Exiger, said these consumables represent the earliest and most underappreciated pressure point. “Treatment can be constrained even when the drug itself is available,” she told Benzinga.

Based on Exiger’s supply chain modelling, petrochemical disruption typically takes two to four weeks to reach medical manufacturing inputs, with hospitals feeling the impact closer to one inventory cycle — generally 30 to 60 days — primarily through pricing adjustments or selective allocation.

“This doesn’t hit overnight, but it moves on a weeks, not months timeline, which is faster than most expect,” Huissen said.

The Cost Mechanism

Freight and insurance costs are already rising for Americans. War-risk premiums, typically around 0.25% for a $100 million vessel, could double or triple based on publicly reported figures, according to Weeks, potentially adding up to $1 million per voyage at a 300% increase.

Rebekah Khew, Director at Vivace Insurance Partners Asia Pacific and a former Lloyd’s underwriter, said rates are moving rapidly.

“There are a wide range of rates which change on an hourly basis as the situation evolves,” she told Benzinga.

“Some cargo owners with shipments destined for ports within the Persian Gulf are considering discharging at ports outside the Strait, such as Dibba, followed by inland transit to final destination.”

Stocks In Focus

Duration Is The Key Variable

“If disruptions in the Gulf persist, cost pressures could broaden across supply chains,” Weeks said.

Huissen said existing buffers are finite. “If disruption persists, buffers begin to erode and operational workarounds lose effectiveness. That’s when underlying vulnerabilities start to surface in availability and patient care,” she said.

For American patients and hospitals already navigating elevated healthcare costs, analysts say the risk is not an immediate drug shortage but a quieter, lagged squeeze. Rising procurement costs on the everyday medical consumables that underpin hospital care, from IV bags to sterile tubing, could take weeks to surface in pricing.

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