Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has remained range-bound since February, prompting questions about what could drive a shift in the months ahead.

Tax Day As Turning Point

Bitcoin may continue trading sideways until mid-April, with U.S. Tax Day acting as a key catalyst for the next move, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

Hougan and Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen said in an appearance on the Milk Road podcast that Bitcoin's near-term outlook is split into two phases, with Apr. 15, U.S. Tax Day, marking a potential inflection point.

They expect crypto markets to remain flat or slightly weaker into mid-April, as investors who realized gains in 2025 may sell holdings to meet tax obligations, creating temporary pressure.

After Apr. 15, they see a more bullish setup.

Once tax-driven selling subsides, Bitcoin could begin a stronger rally, potentially kicking off the next "crypto spring" and pushing toward new highs if macro conditions improve.

Bitcoin "A Forward-Looking Liquidity" Indicator

Hougan said Bitcoin is acting as a forward-looking indicator of liquidity, often reacting to shifts earlier than traditional assets.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, BTC has remained relatively stable, suggesting price action is being driven more by crypto-specific factors such as institutional adoption and long-term cycles.

The broader outlook remains constructive, he said, citing rising institutional interest, improving regulatory clarity and a market structure that "feels like a coiled spring," with potential for a sharp move once uncertainty fades.

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