Prediction market bettors now price a 70% chance that SpaceX completes its IPO by June, and the company appears to be getting its house in order, quietly hiking launch prices ahead of an IPO that could shatter every record in history.

The company is reportedly targeting a June listing at a valuation that could reach $1.75 trillion, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America in senior roles.

Fattening Margins With No Competition In Sight

Ahead of the S-1, SpaceX has been fattening its margins.

Between mid-January and early February, the company raised its Falcon 9 launch price from $69.75 million to $74 million.

Its only real domestic competitor: United Launch Alliance, the Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) and Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT) joint venture, has been grounded after its Vulcan Centaur rocket shed parts midflight.

This effectively hands SpaceX a temporary monopoly on domestic heavy lift.

Even at the new price, SpaceX remains significantly cheaper than both ULA and Europe’s Arianespace, which are estimated to charge roughly $110 million per launch.

What The Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, bettors give SpaceX a 90% chance of going public by September 30 and a 70% chance by June 30. The odds by year-end are at 93%.

On valuation, 49% of traders expect the closing market cap to exceed $2 trillion.

This would place SpaceX as the 6th largest company by market cap, below Amazon and above TSMC.

Not bad for a company that Fortune reports lost $2.4 billion in the first nine months of 2025.

Polymarket traders think there is a 64% chance the next Starship explodes on flight. Starship is SpaceX’s next-generation super-heavy rocket, designed to eventually replace the Falcon 9 workhorse and carry humans to Mars. It has yet to complete a fully successful flight.

Who Benefits

Investors buying SpaceX at IPO will also be buying xAI, Musk’s AI venture merged into SpaceX in February at a combined $1.25 trillion valuation. The deal bundled Starlink’s 9.2 million subscribers, the Grok chatbot, and the X social media platform under one roof.

Among publicly traded proxies, EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS) holds roughly 3% of SpaceX equity and rose 6.5% in premarket Wednesday. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB), the closest public competitor, added 3.5%.

Future Fund’s Gary Black warned on X that Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shareholders may sell shares to fund participation in the SpaceX offering.

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