SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) are trading higher on Wednesday as precious‑metals names catch a bid amid signs that the U.S. and Iran may be inching toward a framework for de‑escalation.

De‑Escalation Hopes Ease Inflation Pressures

The ongoing Middle East conflict pushed energy prices higher, and traders began to price out the possibility of near‑term rate cuts. According to FedWatch data, the market was assigning a 4.1% chance of a rate hike.

With Washington and Tehran signaling a willingness to outline terms for conflict resolution, the narrative is shifting again. Lower energy prices would ease inflation pressures, and any renewed confidence in future rate cuts tends to boost demand for metals like gold.

Diplomacy Rr Mixed Messaging?

The market's optimism is rooted in a series of statements from President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly suggested that the U.S. and Iran are making "great progress" toward ending the conflict. He has spoken of "very good and productive conversations," a five‑day pause in strikes, and even declared, "This war has been won."

Reports circulated that Washington sent Tehran a 15‑point proposal through intermediaries, and regional officials were said to be preparing for high‑level talks. The Financial Times also reported that Iran was allowing non‑hostile vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under its own trade terms — another sign traders interpreted as de‑escalation.

Markets responded immediately. Oil prices fell sharply, with WTI dropping below $90 and Brent sliding under $100. Risk assets rallied, and gold moved higher as investors began to price in a softer inflation outlook.

Iran Pushes Back, But Gold Still Benefits

The optimism didn't last long. Iran's Fars News Agency rejected the idea of a ceasefire outright, saying Tehran would not negotiate with a party it accuses of violating past agreements. The Foreign Ministry went further, insisting there have been no talks at all since Feb. 28.

Tehran's own conditions, which are five non‑negotiable demands including reparations, guarantees against future aggression, and international recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz stand in direct conflict with Washington's reported 15‑point plan.

Even so, the market is still trading as if some form of de‑escalation is possible. And that's enough to lift gold.

The Technical Side

SPDR Gold is trading 8.6% below its 20-day SMA and 0.7% below its 100-day SMA, which shows short-term pressure even as it tries to stabilize near its intermediate trend line. Shares are up 50.41% over the past 12 months and are currently positioned closer to their 52-week highs than lows.

The RSI is at 28.04, which is oversold and often signals selling pressure may be getting exhausted. Meanwhile, MACD is at -11.7545, below its signal line at -2.9509, keeping bearish momentum in place despite Wednesday's rebound.

The combination of oversold RSI (below 30) and bearish MACD suggests mixed momentum.

  • Key Support: $395.50
  • Key Resistance: $468.50

GLD Price Action: SPDR Gold shares were up 3.58% at $418.59 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro.

Image: Dodi Dharmanto/Shutterstock