Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) could reach a $75 billion valuation by 2030 despite Tuesday’s 20% crash on Clarity Act news, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s analysis.

The $75 Billion Math

Hougan’s valuation model uses three key assumptions: stablecoin market size, Circle’s market share, and revenue margins. 

Citigroup (NYSE:C) forecasts the stablecoin market will grow from roughly $200 billion today to $1.9 trillion by 2030.

Moreover, Circle’s USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) currently holds 25% of the market, trailing only Tether’s USDT (CRYPTO: USDT). 

Hougan assumes Circle maintains this 25% share, giving the company control of about $475 billion in stablecoins by 2030.

Circle earns interest by investing customer deposits into U.S. Treasuries, which currently pay around 4%. 

However, the company pays roughly 60% of revenue to distribution partners like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) that bring in customers, leaving Circle with a 1.6% profit margin.

Hougan expects competition to squeeze that margin in half to 0.8% by 2030. 

Even with that cut, Circle would generate $3.8 billion in revenue from a $475 billion stablecoin base. After subtracting operating costs, Circle would earn roughly $2.7 billion in profit.

Wall Street typically values companies at about 28 times annual earnings, matching the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) average. Multiply $2.7 billion in profit by 28, and you get a $75 billion valuation—roughly double where Circle trades today.

Why The Selloff Is Overblown

Hougan argues Tuesday’s 20% crash overreacted to Clarity Act restrictions on stablecoin interest payments. 

Interest income has not been the primary driver of stablecoin growth, with most stablecoins held in ways that don’t pay interest.

Stablecoins have exploded because they let people move money anywhere in the world efficiently for trade settlement, lending collateral, and alternatives to unstable national currencies.

Additionally, convenience is the killer app for money, not yield. The national average savings account yields 0.60% and checking accounts yield 0.07%—people want convenience and trust, not returns.

The 401(k) Catalyst

The White House cleared review of a Labor Department rule that could open the $10 trillion 401(k) market to crypto investments. 

The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs concluded its review March 24, paving the way for formal release in coming weeks.

The rule would amend fiduciary guidance for ERISA plans, potentially permitting plan sponsors to include cryptocurrency among investment alternatives. 

Moreover, Fidelity Investments reported the average 401(k) balance reached an all-time high of $144,400 in Q3 2025, representing 9% annual growth.

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