Cryptocurrency bettors don’t see Iran losing control of Kharg Island anytime soon, amid reports that President Donald Trump is considering a military deployment to the key oil export hub.

Heavily Wagered Bet

Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), currently assigns a 35% probability that Iran will lose control of the Kharg Island by April 30, rising to 41% by May 30.

The island, a strategically important terminal situated 15 miles from Iran's coast, handles nearly 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Due to its importance, it is heavily defended by the Iranian Armed Forces.

Over $7 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran “no longer exercises primary governmental or military control” over the island and another state or internationally backed authority takes over.

Will Trump Try To Seize Control?

The development follows reports that Trump is "drawn" to the concept of seizing Kharg Island outright, as it would lead to "an economic knockout of the regime."

The Pentagon is preparing for a “final blow” in Iran, which could involve invading and blockading the island, Axios reported, citing officials and people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, Iran has been laying traps and moving additional military personnel and air defenses to Kharg Island lately in preparation for a possible U.S. operation, CNN reported.

U.S. forces bombed military installations on the island earlier this month, with Trump claiming every target was “obliterated." He cautioned that Iran's oil facilities could be next if it interferes with safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz.

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