The S&P 500 tumbled on Thursday, falling 1.74% to close at 6,477.16, as rising oil prices and uncertainty around the Iran war weighed heavily on markets.

However, the Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning bullish heading into Friday. The March 27 market shows 54% traders betting "Up," with early trading volume of over $43,000 building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.

Why That Number Matters

Oil and geopolitics continue to dominate market direction. Crude prices surged again on Thursday, with Brent settling above $108 per barrel and WTI near $94, adding pressure on equities and pushing Treasury yields higher.

At 4.32 AM ET, WTI crude futures rose back on Friday to hover around $96 per barrel, while Brent crude rose to $109.91 per barrel.

Investor sentiment remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. President Donald Trump warned earlier that Iran needed to "get serious" about negotiations, even as conflicting signals emerged from Tehran about whether it is willing to engage in talks.

The Bull Case

Futures are pointing slightly upward after a key geopolitical development. At 4.32 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were trading up 0.13% at 6,533.75 points, suggesting a potential rebound after Thursday's sharp selloff.

Trump said he would extend a deadline to strike Iran's energy infrastructure to April 6, signaling more time for negotiations and raising hopes for de-escalation.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 6,555.86, below the prior close of 6,591.90, as rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on premarket sentiment. The March 26 Polymarket bet resolved "Down," with traders steadily anticipating a weaker open ahead of market open.

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