Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has outperformed the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) by 17% on a relative basis since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee calling crypto a better wartime store of value than gold.

The Wartime Performance

Ethereum has outperformed all major global market benchmarks since the Iran conflict started, including Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), gold, real estate, MSCI World Energy, and Magnificent 7 tech stocks, according to Fundstrat’s March research report.

“As a wartime store of value, crypto looks a lot stronger,” said Lee, who chairs Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NYSE:BMNR) and serves as head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. 

“Crypto has been outperforming since the war started while gold has actually underperformed,” he added.

Lee calls the trade a “money trade” for the next year despite lingering risks from the Middle East conflict. “The U.S. is at war with Iran. There’s misinformation. Investors are risk-averse. They want to sit on the sidelines,” he acknowledged.

The Contrarian Call

The recommendation comes amid a $2 trillion crypto market downturn since October that has left most tokens heavily bruised. 

Bitcoin is down 45% from its October peak while Ethereum has fallen nearly 60%. Many popular meme coins have plunged over 90%.

However, the performance since the war began tells a different story. 

While gold and stocks soared to new highs in early 2026 before the conflict, Ethereum has proven more resilient during the actual fighting.

Bitmine purchased another $133 million of Ethereum earlier this week, bringing total holdings above $9 billion. Lee maintains a long-term price target of $250,000 for Ethereum.

The Institutional Case

BlackRock, the world’s largest investment manager overseeing $14 trillion, launched a new Ethereum ETF on March 12. 

The firm sees Ethereum as key technology for tokenization—representing traditional financial assets using blockchain-based tokens to lower investment barriers.

Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, told DL News that Ethereum’s thesis as an institutional-grade settlement layer remains intact despite the market action.

“The market’s current discounting of Ether and related assets reflects a shift in sentiment and risk preference more than a fundamental rejection of the core thesis,” Sun said.

ETH Tests Critical Support

Ethereum is down 4%, barely holding above the psychologically critical $1,800 support zone that has acted as a floor since recent lows. 

The Supertrend indicator at $1,977 is located near current price, meaning a daily close below this level could accelerate selling. 

Key support sits at $1,800 with $1,600 below that. On the upside, Ethereum needs to reclaim $2,400 with conviction for a meaningful recovery. Until then, any bounce should be treated as a relief rally, not a reversal.

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