Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dropped 3% as Ukraine drone strikes resulted in a 40% reduction of Russia’s oil export capacity, coinciding with $171 million in ETF outflows—the largest single-day withdrawal in three weeks.

Ukraine Blows Up Trump’s Oil Plan

President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian crude to compensate for oil supply disruptions caused by the Iran war and cool energy markets.

Ukraine destroyed that strategy this week with drone strikes on ports and refiners in Russia’s Leningrad region.

The damage represents “the most serious threat” to Russia’s oil exports since Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to observers. 

About 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is now offline, creating what Oilprice.com editor Michael Kern described as “a logistics problem first—and a supply problem second,” CoinDesk reported.

“In conjunction with the war in the Middle East and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent oil/LNG production outages, the Russian disruption adds a fresh element to already sky-high oil prices,” Kern said.

The Inflation Risk Returns

Higher sticky energy prices could lead to sticky inflation, potentially pressuring global central banks to raise borrowing costs and drain liquidity. 

For risk assets like Bitcoin, this creates a challenging environment. The cryptocurrency has been trading within the $65,000-$75,000 range, and macro pressures from elevated oil prices represent a key factor threatening that support.

The $171 Million ETF Exodus

On Thursday, investors withdrew a combined $171.12 million from the 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to SoSoValue data.

BlackRock’s IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) saw $41.92 million in outflows, while FBTC, GBTC, BITB, and ARKB each recorded withdrawals in the $20 million to $30 million range. 

The pullback follows robust inflows that attracted more than $2 billion between late February and mid-March.

Since then, momentum has slowed dramatically. ETFs attracted just $95.8 million in inflows last week and posted net outflows of $70.71 million so far this week, signaling a clear shift in institutional sentiment.

Key Levels for Bitcoin

The Parabolic SAR at $75,187 sits well above price, confirming bears remain in control on the daily timeframe. 

The Supertrend at $66,129 is nearly identical to the current price—a close below this flips the signal bearish again.

Key support sits at $65,000, with $61,000 at the wedge base below that. 

On the upside, resistance clusters at $72,500, then $75,187 (SAR), then $80,000. A wedge breakdown would open the door to $60,000 and below, while bulls need a clean breakout above $75,000 to shift momentum.

Image source: Shutterstock