Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is more likely to hit $80,000 before $60,000, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and analyst Ryan Rasmussen. Hougan expects crypto to trade sideways until the April 15 tax day, then rally toward new all‑time highs.

The April 15 Tax Day Catalyst

Hougan expects crypto weakness heading into April 15—the deadline for Americans to file taxes and pay capital gains from 2025. 

Investors who harvested gains last year must now pay taxes, potentially forcing them to sell crypto to cover the bill.

“My experience historically is that crypto is often weak heading into tax day and then starts to rally right around then,” Hougan told Milk Road this week.

The theory carries extra weight this year after the outsized gains many traders booked in late 2024 and early 2025 — especially from the Trump memecoin's surge in January 2025.

Why $80,000 Beats $60,000

Both Bitwise analysts still expect Bitcoin to reach $80,000 before $60,000, even with the price sitting roughly in between.

Rasmussen said a drop to $60,000 would require a cascade of negative events so severe that "people would be crying in the streets.”

“I think we’re near the bottom here,” Rasmussen said. “The conflict in the Middle East is going to end sooner rather than later. And once that happens, markets will rip and Bitcoin and Ethereum and other crypto assets and crypto equities will go with it.”

Hougan agrees, arguing that an $80,000 move is easier from current levels than grinding down to $60,000. The setup aligns with the rolling four-year cycle, increasing institutional adoption, and potential passage of the Clarity Act before the April legislative deadline.

Bitcoin As Risk Barometer

Hougan describes Bitcoin as the most sensitive measure of forward increases in liquidity and emerging risk.

“I think it sniffs out risk and then on the upside it sniffs out increased liquidity,” he said.

This explains why Bitcoin appears to move independently of Middle East tensions. 

The cryptocurrency dropped 45% from October highs well before stocks and gold weakened, functioning as a leading indicator rather than following traditional risk-on/risk-off patterns.

Institutional Engagement At Record Levels

Rasmussen reported speaking to more than 700 professional investors last week with engagement levels roughly 3x typical levels. 

Questions focused on regulation, Bitcoin mining, stablecoins, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), and tokenization rather than skeptical challenges.

“This is a much different level of engagement than we had two years ago,” Rasmussen said. “There’s this institutional level of excitement around crypto that we’ve never seen before.”

Hougan confirmed getting institutional meetings after FTX in 2022 was far harder than navigating current debates over the Clarity Act, signaling genuine structural change in institutional appetite.

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