The S&P 500 surged on Tuesday, rising 2.91% to close at 6,528.52, marking its best single-day performance since May as hopes for an end to the Iran war lifted investor sentiment.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning bullish heading into Wednesday. The April 1 market shows 79% of traders betting "Up," with early trading activity building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower. The odds were placed well above 80% earlier.

Why That Number Matters

Tuesday's rally was driven by growing optimism that the conflict could wind down. President Donald Trump said U.S. forces could leave Iran within "two or three weeks,” while reports suggested Tehran may be open to ending the war under certain conditions.

At the same time, oil prices remain elevated, underscoring lingering uncertainty. Brent crude settled near multi-year highs above $118 per barrel, reflecting ongoing supply concerns.

The rally also capped a difficult month and quarter for equities. The S&P 500 fell more than 5% in March and posted a quarterly decline.

Investors will now turn their focus to economic data, including ADP employment figures, ISM manufacturing data, and retail sales data due Wednesday, for clues on the strength of the economy and potential Federal Reserve policy moves.

The Bull Case

Futures are pointing modestly higher following Tuesday's surge. At 4.17 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.38% to 6,595.50 points.

Markets have responded strongly to any signs of de-escalation, with Tuesday's rally reflecting a sharp relief move after weeks of oil-driven declines.

As the second quarter kicks off, Wall Street will watch for earnings from Conagra (NYSE:CAG) and Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ:CALM).

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 6,395.88, above the prior close of 6,343.72, as optimism around potential peace developments supported premarket sentiment. The March 31 Polymarket bet resolved "Up," with $193,412 in traded volume.

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