President Donald Trump will deliver a prime-time address to the nation at 9 p.m. EST on Wednesday, his first since the so-called “Operation Epic Fury” launched on Feb. 28.

“Big Short” legend Steve Eisman called this a “unipolar market” last week, meaning the Iran war is the single variable running the entire stock market.

Kalshi’s word-mention market for tonight’s address has already topped $2 million in volume in under 17 hours.

What The Market Expects

“Nuclear” at 97% and “Epic Fury” at 92% are locked in. “NATO” at 88% is guaranteed after Trump said he was strongly considering leaving, and told European allies to “go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”

“Oil” at 82%. How heavily Trump leans on oil language could signal whether he is serious about ending the operation with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, a scenario that would keep crude elevated well above $100.

“Hormuz” at 79%, down 10 points. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed Tuesday that reopening the Strait is not a core military objective. BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink warned oil could hit $150 if Iran remains a threat to Hormuz after the war.

The Coin Flips

“Midnight Hammer” at 64%. This was the codename for last year’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, which Trump claimed had obliterated the country’s nuclear program. Whether he references it tonight could signal how much of the address is a victory lap versus a forward-looking operational update.

“Ceasefire” at 49% is the most important contract on the board. Trump said that Iran asked for one. Iran denied it. If he uses the word tonight, risk assets could rally. If he avoids it, traders will conclude “leaving in two to three weeks” means declaring victory, not ending the fighting.

“Hegseth” at 48%, down 41 points. If the war is going as well as the White House claims, Trump would be crediting his Defense Secretary by name. The collapse in this contract suggests traders think he might be starting to distance himself from Hegseth if the operation’s narrative isn’t landing the way the administration hoped.

Longshots

“Ground” at 39% dropped 51 points. The stock market seems to have nearly priced out a ground invasion, but prediction markets are less sure. If Trump mentions ground forces, oil might revert upwards, and defense names like Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT) and RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX) could rip higher.

“Withdraw” at 36%. Despite saying “we’ll be leaving very soon,” traders give just 36% odds he uses withdrawal language. The market expects “mission accomplished,” not a pullback.

“Uranium” at 33%. Iran reportedly still holds roughly 500 kg of enriched uranium, meaning that if the U.S. exits without addressing the stockpile, Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain largely intact. If Trump skips the enrichment justification tonight, it reinforces the exit narrative. If he brings it up, he may be laying the groundwork for an extended operation.

“Peace in the Middle East” at 35%. At just over a third, traders are skeptical that Trump will pivot from war president to peacemaker tonight. If he says it, it would be the biggest rhetorical shift of the entire conflict and the clearest signal yet that the administration is looking for an off-ramp before midterms.

What Happens Tomorrow?

CNBC’s Jim Cramer called Tuesday’s stock rally a “dry run” for what happens when the war actually ends, predicting rates will drop, oil will fall and tech will rip. The speech tonight determines whether that trade activates or stalls.

It also underscores what has become a new normal for traders: Making unusual bets tied to major geopolitical events. The movement is so prevalent that federal prosecutors in Manhattan have met with representatives from Polymarket to examine whether highly profitable bets on the prediction‑market platform may have violated insider trading, anti‑fraud or other federal laws.

The discussion comes as the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District, Jay Clayton, has warned that criminal cases linked to prediction market activity could be forthcoming.

The scrutiny intensified after well‑timed wagers — made on the outcomes of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s arrest and the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran — generated huge profits for some accounts. One new Polymarket account reportedly turned about $32,000 into over $400,000 in under 24 hours, and another trader netted nearly $1 million on Iran‑related bets. These results have raised questions about whether traders may have profited on nonpublic information.

Image: Shutterstock