Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is reportedly in talks to anchor SpaceX's IPO with a $5 billion investment — a move that would instantly make it one of the most high-profile backers of the listing.

But if history is any guide, getting in early doesn't always mean getting it right.

Coupang Shows The Other Side Of IPO Hype

PIF has played in U.S. IPOs before.

In 2021, the fund bought shares in Coupang, Inc (NYSE:CPNG) around its New York listing, Reuters reported — a deal that initially looked like a win as the stock surged above its $35 IPO price on debut.

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

That momentum didn't last.

Coupang eventually fell to nearly $8, wiping out a significant chunk of its post-IPO value, and even now trades well below its early highs. The trajectory is familiar: strong debut, sharp unwind, and a long road to recovery.

Big Bet, Bigger Expectations

That backdrop makes the potential SpaceX investment more interesting.

A $5 billion anchor role would mark a step up in both size and visibility for PIF, compared to its more measured participation in past listings.

And unlike Coupang, SpaceX comes with a different kind of narrative — one tied to private market scarcity, founder premium, and long-term optionality in sectors like satellite internet and space infrastructure.

Access Isn't The Edge

Still, the core lesson holds.

IPO allocations — even in marquee names — don't guarantee returns.

Timing, valuation, and post-listing dynamics often matter more than access itself.

PIF may be lining up for one of the most anticipated IPOs in years.

But if Coupang is any reminder, even the biggest, boldest listings can take investors on a very different ride once the hype fades.