Analyst Andrew Percoco of investment bank Morgan Stanley believes Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) deliveries could reach 1.6 million this year.

1.6 Million Deliveries, Energy Storage Miss

In a new note released on Sunday, the analyst raised Tesla’s 2026 deliveries from 1.58 million to 1.6 million. “Beyond 2026, we expect auto demand to reaccelerate,” Percoco said in the note, citing possible new model launches like the teased 7-seater Tesla vehicle hinted at by CEO Elon Musk, as well as “improvements” to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system.

Percoco also weighed in on Tesla’s energy storage miss, which was at 8.8 GWh and significantly lower than market expectations of 14.4 GWh, saying that the energy storage sector was “inherently lumpy” and that the Q1 results did not paint a picture for the rest of the year.

Percoco said that he expects demand to “remain relatively robust, due to improving unit economics for utility-scale ESS and growing demand from data center customers.”

Robotaxi Ramp

The analyst then shared how the company’s “ability to scale the unsupervised robotaxi fleet” was the catalyst for its stock performance in 2026. Percoco said that improvements to the system could help drive demand. “We expect the stock to trade in close correlation to progress in the scaling of the unsupervised robotaxi fleet in Austin and the seven incremental city launches expected by the end of June,” he said.

Morgan Stanley maintained its price target of $415 per share for the automaker, which illustrates a nearly 15% upside in the value of the stock. TSLA is currently priced at around $361/share.

Tesla’s Delivery Miss

The EV giant recently released its Q1 2026 delivery figures, which fell short of market expectations as Tesla delivered over 358,000 vehicles worldwide. However, the automaker produced over 408,000 units in Q1 2026, which showed that over 50,000 Tesla vehicles sit unsold in the company’s lots, a new record.

On the other hand, Tesla’s Chinese rival BYD Co. Ltd. (OTC:BYDDY) (OTC:BYDDF) exported 321,165 vehicles in the first quarter. BYD also reportedly delivered 302,000 units domestically.

According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, Tesla offers Satisfactory Momentum and Growth, but fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.

Price Action: TSLA fell 5.42% to $360.59 at market close on Thursday, but gained 0.19% to $361.26 during the after-hours trading session.

Check out more of Benzinga's Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

Photo courtesy: Tada Images / Shutterstock