U.S. crude oil jumped from $112 to roughly $114 per barrel during President Donald Trump’s Monday press conference, as the president threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure within four hours if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET.

“Every bridge will be decimated, every power plant, complete demolition, over a period of four hours,” Trump said.

Trump Says Iran Has ‘No Method Of Communication’

Trump opened by discussing the rescue of the second crew member from a downed F-15E fighter jet, calling it “very historic.”

He then claimed Iran’s communications infrastructure has been destroyed and that the regime is “using children to bring a notebook back and forth,” in order to discuss a deal with him.

A 45-day ceasefire proposal circulated by mediators was submitted to both sides over the weekend.

Trump called it “a significant step” but said Iran had not gone far enough.

Iran rejected any temporary ceasefire, with a diplomat in Cairo saying Tehran demands guarantees against future aggression.

$114 Crude May Be Just The Start

On Polymarket, traders think there’s a 14% chance a ceasefire is reached before oil hits $120.

A separate ceasefire market with over $100 million in volume gives just a 28% chance of a deal by April 30, and a 56% chance by June 30.

Analysts at Macquarie said last week oil could reach $200 if the war drags into June, and J.P. Morgan’s Natasha Kaneva has warned that Gulf storage capacity could be exhausted within weeks, triggering a production halt that would send crude to $120 as a floor, not a ceiling.

Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) have surged alongside crude since the war began, with both up sharply from pre-war levels.

The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) offers the most direct tracker for crude prices. If Hormuz stays closed, all three likely have further to run.

The Strait of Hormuz normalization market on Polymarket gives a 16% chance that shipping returns to pre-war levels by the end of April.

What Happens At 8 P.M. Tomorrow

Trump threatened to send Iran “back to the stone ages” last week. Today, he repeated his message: “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.”

Trump said the Tuesday deadline is final. If he follows through with his threat, Trump says it would take Iran ‘100 years’ to rebuild, and $114 oil might just be the beginning.

Image: Shutterstock