The benchmark S&P 500 index rose for the fourth-straight session on Monday, gaining 0.44% to close at 6,611.83, as investors bet on a potential resolution to the Iran war despite continued volatility in oil markets.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is split heading into Tuesday. The April 7 market shows 50% odds for "Up" with early trading activity building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.

Why That Number Matters

President Donald Trump has warned that the U.S. will strike Iran's power plants and infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday evening, raising the risk of escalation even as negotiations continue.

At the same time, diplomatic efforts are underway. Reports suggest the U.S. and Iran are reviewing a Pakistan-brokered plan that could lead to an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the strait, while other discussions include a potential 45-day truce.

Oil prices have remained elevated amid the uncertainty, with Brent crude hovering near $109 per barrel and WTI above $112 at 4.54 AM ET, reflecting concerns over supply disruptions tied to the critical shipping route.

The push and pull between escalation risks and ceasefire hopes has kept volatility elevated, with the VIX remaining above typical levels.

Investors will also watch durable goods data due Tuesday, which could offer further clues on the strength of the U.S. economy.

The Bull Case

Markets have shown resilience in recent sessions, with the S&P 500 extending its gains as traders price in a potential near-term resolution to the conflict.

However, futures are pointing slightly lower ahead of Tuesday's open. S&P 500 futures are up 0.08% at 6,656.50 points.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 6,587.66, above the prior close of 6,582.69, as optimism around ceasefire talks supported premarket sentiment. The April 6 Polymarket bet resolved "Up," following improving risk sentiment after the holiday-shortened week.

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