XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has surged about 163% since the November 2022 FTX collapse, but this headline growth masks a much weaker reality for most investors.

XRP's Wallet Holders

Despite the price increase, data from Santiment shows that active XRP wallets are sitting on average losses of around 41%, meaning a large share of holders bought at higher prices and are still underwater.

This is reinforced by the MVRV ratio dropping to its lowest level since the FTX crash, a signal that most investors are holding at a loss.

Further on-chain insights from Glassnode indicate that more than half of XRP's circulating supply is currently underwater, largely due to heavy accumulation above the $2 level over the past year.

Since November 2025, these holders have been realizing losses between $20 million and $110 million daily, pointing to sustained selling pressure and signs of capitulation.

On the other hand, Whale Factor outlined retail investors are selling XRP during a sharp drawdown, while institutional and smart money players are accumulating.

Spot XRP ETFs have seen strong inflows, and institutions are increasing their share (1.1% of total valuation) of the market, signaling growing long-term confidence.

‘Blood In The Streets'

Santiment describes the current environment as "blood in the streets," reflecting extreme fear and pessimism. XRP has seen a drop of around 27% over the last year.

Historically, such conditions tend to appear late in bear markets or during accumulation phases, when weaker hands exit and long-term investors begin positioning.

While risks remain and prices could stay subdued, the data suggests the risk-reward profile may be gradually improving for long-term buyers, like December 2022, when XRP rebounded 63% (in 4.5 months) after a period of heavy losses and negative sentiment.

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