JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analyst Ryan Brinkman is telling investors to approach Tesla (NYSE:TSLA) shares with “a high degree of caution,” and a $145 price target, implying roughly 60% downside.

That warning landed the same week regulators handed Tesla one of its cleaner regulatory outcomes in months.

Tesla Gets A Pass On Smart Summon — But FSD Trouble Brewing

Federal regulators had been investigating Tesla’s Smart Summon feature, the tool that lets owners remotely call their car across a parking lot via smartphone, over reports of crashes during use.

The NHTSA found that out of millions of uses, fewer than 1% resulted in any incident, and none caused injuries or fatalities. On that basis, the NHTSA closed the probe on April 3.

But the regulatory picture is not clean. The NHTSA is separately investigating its Full Self-Driving software, after reports of FSD-equipped vehicles running red lights, making illegal turns, and entering oncoming traffic.

Tesla sold fewer cars than Wall Street expected in Q1 2026, and built far more than it sold, leaving a growing pile of unsold inventory. Its energy storage business also had a rough quarter, deploying significantly less than the record it set at the end of 2025.

What Analysts Are Saying

The delivery miss prompted a wave of price target cuts. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney trimmed his target to $375 from $405, while Truist’s William Stein cut to $400 from $438, both maintaining a Hold rating. Stein noted Tesla gave investors no updates on AI projects or new vehicle timelines, which may have stung more than the delivery number itself.

JPMorgan’s Brinkman went further, cutting his Q1 EPS estimate to $0.30 from $0.43 and his full-year 2026 outlook to $1.80, below the Street’s $1.95 consensus.

Not everyone is selling. Wedbush’s Dan Ives held firm at Buy with a $600 target, insisting the delivery debate is beside the point. For Ives, Tesla is an AI and robotics company that happens to sell cars, and the real scorecard is Cybercab, FSD, and Optimus.

What Prediction Markets Are Pricing

Polymarket traders are not convinced any of the new technology arrives on schedule.

A California robotaxi launch by June 30 is priced at just 13%, Optimus hitting public sale by the same date sits at a skeptical 6%, and even the Tesla-SpaceX merger thesis only commands 5%.

Tesla is down more than 3% today, trading around $340.

The next chance for Tesla to change the narrative comes April 22, when Q1 earnings drop.

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