Nobel Prize-winning physicist John Martinis warns Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could be cracked in minutes by quantum computers but says the community has 5-10 years to upgrade to quantum-resistant encryption.

The Minutes Warning

A recent Google paper endorsed by Martinis shows how a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could derive a Bitcoin private key from its public key in minutes, exploiting the brief window when a transaction’s public key is exposed before confirmation.

The vulnerability centers on a specific exposure window. 

When a Bitcoin transaction is broadcast, its public key becomes visible before it is confirmed on-chain. 

A powerful quantum computer could use that window to derive the corresponding private key and redirect funds before final settlement.

The Low-Hanging Fruit

Breaking cryptography is one of the easier applications for quantum computing because it’s very numeric. 

“These are the smaller, easier algorithms. The low-hanging fruit,” Martinis said.

Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography, placing it directly in the line of fire. 

Unlike traditional financial systems that can migrate to quantum-resistant encryption standards, Bitcoin faces a more complex challenge. 

Its decentralized structure and historical design make upgrades slower and more contentious.

“Bitcoin is a little bit different, which is why people should be thinking about this right now,” Martinis said.

The 5-10 Year Window

Building a quantum computer capable of executing such an attack remains one of the hardest engineering challenges in modern science. 

Martinis pointed to major hurdles in scaling, reliability, and error correction.

Martinis suggested a rough 5-10 year window but warned that uncertainty is not a reason for inaction. “Given the serious consequences, you deal with it. You have time, but you have to work on it.”

The Community Response

The warning highlights a growing shift inside the quantum research community, where scientists are increasingly flagging risks to existing cryptographic systems while withholding sensitive technical details—a strategy borrowed from traditional cybersecurity disclosure practices.

“The crypto community has to plan for this,” Martinis said. “It’s a serious issue that has to be dealt with.”

Martinis led Google’s quantum hardware program, including the 2019 “quantum supremacy” experiment. 

He is currently CTO and co-founder of Qolab, a hardware company developing utility-scale superconducting quantum computers.

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