Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may remain in a bearish or transitional phase into Q2, according to Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, who argues that traditional macro models are becoming less effective in explaining crypto market behavior.  

Bitcoin Becoming More “Idiosyncratic“

Puckrin notes that Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from traditional assets.

Its correlations with gold, equities, the dollar, and interest rates have become inconsistent, and in some cases negative, challenging the long-standing "digital gold" narrative.

Instead, Bitcoin is now being driven more by internal factors such as stablecoin flows, derivatives activity, and overall market structure.

The report suggests Bitcoin's current phase is not a confirmed bull trend, but rather a transition with lingering downside risk. He marks technical downside range and a structural support zone between $55,700 and $58,200

Price action is being shaped less by macro signals and more by credit conditions and liquidity within the crypto ecosystem, meaning volatility could persist into Q2.

Structural Shift: Rise of On-Chain Finance

Puckrin's report highlights a major theme is the rapid growth of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and stablecoin integration, signaling crypto's evolution into a parallel financial system.

RWA markets have surpassed $27 billion (+263% year-over-year), with major institutions like BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Franklin Templeton building infrastructure for faster settlement, lower costs, and 24/7 liquidity.

However, scaling challenges, like cross-chain inefficiencies and pricing gaps, mean broader adoption is still 18–24 months away.

Crypto's internal dynamics are also adding pressure:

  • Derivatives dominance (around $49 billion open interest) is amplifying short-term volatility through liquidation events
  • Miner behavior could turn bearish, as rising energy costs and falling mining difficulty may force increased selling
  • Weak demand conditions continue to limit upside momentum

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