Global equities soared late Tuesday as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures surged after a sudden two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran perfectly aligned with one of the stock market’s most historically bullish months.

Seasonality Favors The Bulls

The geopolitical breakthrough arrives just as the market enters a highly favorable seasonal window.

According to analysis by The Kobeissi Letter citing Bloomberg data, April is historically one of the strongest periods for equities. “The S&P 500 has gained +1.3% on average in April since 1928, the 2nd-best month of the year after July,” the firm noted, adding that “seasonality favors the bulls this month.”

Furthermore, over the last 25 years, the MSCI World Index has posted positive returns 75% of the time in April, averaging a 2.0% gain—the strongest of any month. This broader global momentum is heavily driven by U.S. equities, which hold a dominant 70% weight in the index.

An 80% Historical Win Rate

The seasonal outlook looks even stronger following a brutal March, where the S&P 500 dropped over 6%. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, highlighted that over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has finished April higher 80% of the time, tying July as the most consistent green month.

Historically, steep March sell-offs often precede major strength. After March declines exceeding 3%, April typically rebounds with an average increase of 5.92%, signaling a powerful relief rally as investors recalibrate.

Futures Skyrocket On Truce

S&P 500 futures climbed 2.35%, meanwhile, Dow Jones jumped 1100 points to 2.4%, handing the indices an immediate head start on their historical average April gain of 1.3%. The rally was ignited after President Donald Trump agreed to suspend planned military strikes on Iran in exchange for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced the pause to allow time for negotiations, stating, “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” He added that the “two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed conditional cooperation, noting, “If attacks against Iran are halted, our powerful armed forces will cease their defensive operations.”

The sudden de-escalation also sent energy markets into a tailspin; at the last check, the WTI Crude Oil futures plunged 15.30% to $95.67, and Brent Crude Oil futures declined by 14.03% to $93.94.

How Have Markets Performed So Far In 2026?

The S&P 500 index has declined 3.52% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was down 5.24%, and the Dow Jones tumbled 3.72% YTD.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, respectively, closed higher on Tuesday. The SPY was up 0.044% at $659.22, while the QQQ advanced 0.015% to $588.59.

Meanwhile, Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), fell 0.19% to close at $465.88 on Tuesday.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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