The S&P 500 edged higher on Tuesday, rising 0.08% to close at 6,616.85, as investors bet on a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran war.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning strongly bullish heading into Wednesday. The April 8 market shows a clear majority of traders betting "Up," with trading volume building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.

Why That Number Matters

President Donald Trump said he would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, just ahead of a key deadline, after receiving a 10-point proposal from Tehran. The pause is contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supply.

Iran has indicated it would reopen the waterway temporarily under the ceasefire framework, raising hopes for de-escalation after weeks of disruption.

Oil prices plunged in response. WTI crude dropped more than 15% to below $96 per barrel, while Brent crude fell over 13%, easing one of the biggest pressures on global markets. The conflict had driven oil prices sharply higher in recent weeks, fueling inflation concerns and market volatility.

The Bull Case

Futures are pointing sharply higher following the ceasefire announcement. At 5 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were up 2.50%.

Markets have consistently rallied on signs of de-escalation, and the scale of the oil pullback is adding to optimism that the worst of the energy shock may be easing.

Investors will also be watching corporate catalysts, with Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL) set to report earnings before the bell.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 6,601.93, slightly below the prior close of 6,611.83, as uncertainty around the Iran deadline weighed on early sentiment. The April 7 Polymarket bet resolved "Down," as $538,102 was wagered on the outcome.

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