Apple Inc's (NASDAQ:AAPL) expected shift to OLED in MacBook Pro models is set to reshape the notebook display market, even as overall growth slows under cost pressure, according to Counterpoint.

Market Enters Normalization Phase

The global notebook PC display market grew 7% year over year in 2025, while advanced displays (MiniLED and OLED) surged 19% on enterprise upgrades, AI PC adoption, and demand pulled forward ahead of rising memory costs, the firm said on Wednesday.

Counterpoint expects the broader market to decline 5% in 2026 as memory cost inflation continues to pressure pricing and configurations, though enterprise refresh cycles and AI-driven upgrades should support some demand.

OLED Rises As MiniLED Adoption Weakens

Advanced display shipments are forecast to dip 1% in 2026, reflecting diverging trends within the segment.

MiniLED shipments are expected to drop 43% due to cost constraints and model rationalization.

In comparison, OLED shipments are projected to grow 33%, driven largely by Apple's adoption in next-generation MacBook Pro devices.

This shift is expected to accelerate OLED adoption across premium notebooks and reinforce the move toward higher-performance display technologies.

Analysts Highlight Long-Term Shift Toward Premium Displays

Counterpoint Associate Director David Naranjo said, "After a strong 2025 driven by inventory pull-forward and enterprise upgrades, the notebook display market is entering a normalization phase in 2026 as memory cost inflation pressures OEM configurations and pricing."

He added, "However, OLED continues to gain momentum, particularly with Apple's expected adoption in MacBook Pro models."

Naranjo said this transition reflects OEMs prioritizing performance, power efficiency, and design innovation, adding that OLED is expected to take share from both LCD and MiniLED in premium notebook segments over time.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said MacBook Pro models powered by Apple's new M5 Pro and M5 Max chips significantly boost AI performance, positioning them to help drive the company's next upgrade cycle.

AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were up 2.16% at $258.97 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo by Thaspol Sangsee via Shutterstock