Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) heads into its first-quarter earnings with strong growth momentum, as investors weigh whether AI-driven gains can offset rising costs.

Meta Platforms Q1 2026 Preview

An April 8 note from BNP Paribas Equity Research senior analyst Nick Jones highlights a constructive outlook on Meta ahead of its first-quarter 2026 earnings, expected in the final week of April.

The firm maintains an Outperform rating with a price target of $955, implying 66% upside from the April 7 closing price of $575. Despite recent volatility, BNP Paribas believes Meta remains well-positioned to deliver solid results, supported by sustained top-line momentum.

Key Focus Areas Ahead Of Earnings

Investors are closely watching several key factors heading into the print. These include the scale of Meta's capital expenditure and its impact on revenue growth and margins, progress in artificial intelligence initiatives such as Llama and broader AI strategy, ongoing restructuring efforts, and management commentary on legal and regulatory developments.

Valuation And Expectations

Meta's forward P/E multiple is currently trading below its six-month average, reflecting investor caution around earnings durability, the scale of capital spending, competitive positioning in AI, and broader macroeconomic conditions.

BNP Paribas expects first-quarter revenue growth of 32% to 33% year over year, above the consensus estimate of 30.8%. GAAP diluted earnings per share are projected to exceed $7.00, compared with the $6.65 consensus.

For the second quarter, the firm sees revenue guidance in the range of $58 billion to $61 billion, versus consensus expectations of $59.6 billion.

Capital expenditure remains a key debate. Investors are widely anticipating 2026 capex guidance in the range of $115 billion to $135 billion, broadly in line with the $124 billion consensus estimate.

User Growth And Engagement Trends

Meta continues to demonstrate strong engagement across its platforms. Despite a global user base exceeding 3 billion daily active users, both monthly and daily active users are still growing at mid- to high-single-digit rates.

User engagement also remains dominant. Time spent on Meta platforms accounts for more than 40% of total time spent across major social media platforms, nearly double that of its closest competitor.

BNP Paribas Investment View

BNP Paribas expects Meta to deliver strong financial performance, supported by increasing monetization of AI-driven products and continued gains in the advertising market share.

While capital expenditure is expected to remain elevated, the firm believes Meta's revenue trajectory should enable it to absorb these investments over time. Against this backdrop, BNP Paribas views the recent pullback in Meta's stock as a buying opportunity and reiterates its Outperform rating.

Price Action

META Price Action: Meta Platforms shares were up 3.12% at $593.02 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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