There is downside revision risk to the 2026 consensus EBITDA estimates for Hims & Hers Health Inc (NYSE:HIMS), with the EBITDA contribution from GLP-1 (glucagon-like-peptide-1) likely to decline 50% this year, according to BofA Securities.

The Hims & Hers Health Analyst: Analyst Allen Lutz maintained a Neutral rating, while cutting the price target from $23 to $21.

The Hims & Hers Health Thesis: The shift to branded GLP-1s and rising international revenue in the mix are likely to weigh on the company's margins, Lutz said in the note.

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While the higher price for branded would boost EBITDA dollars over time, conversion rates and uptake may be impacted as Hims & Hers Health "shifts away from a low-cost provider model," he explained.

The analyst estimates that the company would be able to convert 40%-50% of existing subscribers to branded. He lowered the 2026 GLP-1 revenue estimate from $577 million to $516 million.

Hims & Hers Health aims at its international business surpassing $1 billion over the next three years, with the biggest contributor being Eucalyptus, Lutz said. "Our checks on Eucalyptus suggest ~90% of revenue is from branded GLP-1 distribution" and half a year of Eucalyptus contributions could spell an EBITDA margin headwind of 1-2 percentage points for Hims & Hers Health, he further wrote.

HIMS Price Action: Shares of Hims & Hers Health had risen by 1.23% to $19.76 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

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