Polymarket’s Iran ceasefire market has logged over $170 million in total volume, making it one of the largest geopolitical wagers in prediction market history.

But a dispute over whether a ceasefire actually occurred has left traders locked out of payouts, with no clear resolution timeline.

The Discord That Decides

On Polymarket, resolution works like this: any user can propose an outcome by posting collateral. If another user disputes it, the matter goes to a vote among holders of UMA (CRYPTO: UMA), a governance cryptocurrency.

Traders debate the evidence in a public Discord server.

The sticking point is definitional. Some traders argue the US-Iran agreement qualifies as a “temporary tactical stand-down,” which may not meet Polymarket’s resolution criteria.

Others point to Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s statement that Iran’s forces would cease “defensive operations” only if attacks against Iran were halted first, leaving the question of offensive capability open.

The ceasefire contract is trading at 99.6 cents, suggesting the market is nearly certain it resolves yes.

Suspicious Timing Raises Red Flags

The dispute is not the only problem. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain flagged three recently created anonymous accounts that secured over $480,000 in profits by betting on a ceasefire before April 7.

Separately, Bubblemaps identified a cluster of accounts with a track record of correctly predicting previous Iran attacks, which then took ceasefire positions, netting over $560,000.

This is not the first time Bubblemaps has flagged suspicious Iran trading.

Benzinga previously reported that six accounts made $1.2 million on Iran strike predictions before Operation Epic Fury began, prompting Sen. Chris Murphy to introduce legislation banning war betting.

Neither firm said the accounts were definitively trading on inside information. The CFTC has since declared insider trading on prediction markets illegal and a top enforcement priority.

What It Means For The Market

House Democrats sent a letter to the CFTC on Monday asking why the agency has not acted against offshore war bets, a pressure campaign that may accelerate following the ceasefire dispute.

Both Polymarket and rival Kalshi have partnered with third-party firms to monitor suspicious activity, but pseudonymous trading makes enforcement structurally difficult.

Total volume on the contested April 7 contract alone has topped $67 million and remains open while the dispute resolves.

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