Elon Musk once swore SpaceX would stay private until humans reached Mars. Now he wants $2 trillion and a June listing.

SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC on April 1, targeting a late-May prospectus and early June roadshow at a reported $1.75 trillion valuation, roughly five times what SpaceX was worth just nine months ago.

The AI Pivot Driving The Numbers

The valuation jump owes less to rockets than to Musk’s February merger of SpaceX with his AI company xAI, owner of the Grok chatbot. The stated rationale for the xAI merger is building AI data centers in space, though specifics remain vague.

xAI pulled in roughly $100 million in revenue last quarter. OpenAI reported $2 billion a month over the same period.

Starlink currently serves around 10 million subscribers. T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) has roughly 14 times as many at a fraction of the proposed valuation.

According to the New York Times, prospective bankers and lawyers have been required to sign up for Grok accounts to win a piece of the IPO.

What Prediction Markets Are Saying

Traders on Polymarket think that there’s a 65% chance the IPO occurs in June.

Polymarket’s closing market cap contract gives a 40% chance that the valuation is between $1.5T–$2.0T, and a 27% chance it is between $2–$2.5T.

The deeper question prediction markets are asking is whether the AI hype driving that $2 trillion figure is real.

Polymarket’s AI bubble burst contract, which has drawn $3 million in volume, currently gives just a 19% chance that the AI industry experiences a significant downturn by December 31.

How To Play It Before The IPO

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has long been the most liquid proxy for the Musk trade, but that thesis may be unwinding. TSLA is already down 30% from its 52-week high, and some analysts warn the SpaceX IPO could accelerate the slide as Musk hype rotates from the EV maker to the rocket company.

Bloomberg notes Musk is using identical language to justify the SpaceX/xAI merger that he used when pivoting Tesla to robotaxis: “we’re not opening a new chapter, we’re starting a new book.”

JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman has a $145 price target on TSLA, roughly 60% below current levels.

EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS) is the more direct bet. Spectrum-for-equity deals have left it holding a SpaceX stake currently valued at around $11.1 billion, making it effectively a pre-IPO vehicle for the listing.

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