Vice President JD Vance isn’t selling peace. Speaking in Budapest Wednesday, Vance called the U.S.-Iran agreement “a fragile truce,” warning that some Iranian officials are “lying about even the fragile truce that we’ve already struck.”

“The president of the United States is not one to mess around,” Vance added. “He’s impatient. He’s impatient to make progress.”

Trump’s ceasefire announcement had hammered the sector before Vance spoke. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) fell more than 6% as West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled more than 17% to $93.42 a barrel. APA shed more than 9%. Occidental Petroleum and Diamondback Energy fell around 7%.

What Prediction Markets Say

The crowd isn’t convinced the war premium is gone for good. On Polymarket, traders are giving only a 28% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April. By end of May that rises to 53%, still far from certain.

The market for the conflict ending by May 15th is only at 70%.

Talks are set to begin on Friday in Islamabad. If they stall, oil could move fast.

Are XOM And CVX Oversold?

Neither company needs $100 oil to make money. Both turn a profit at $50 a barrel, and today’s crash still leaves prices well above that floor. UBS maintained a Buy with a $171 price target this week. The fundamentals haven’t moved, only the war premium has.

The question is whether that premium comes back, and Vance just told you it might.

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