Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market exchange Kalshi, says Donald Trump Jr. has never made a regulatory ask on the platform’s behalf, pushing back on conflict-of-interest concerns as monthly trading volume surges past $12 billion.

Trump Jr. was hired as a Kalshi strategic advisor shortly after inauguration day.

He is also an investor and advisor to rival Polymarket. “We have never asked for any favors and he has never done anything, any regulatory ask, nothing like that,” Mansour said in a new interview.

Sports Share Is Falling, But That’s The Point

Sports contracts still make up roughly 70% of volume, down from over 90% recently.

Mansour defended that remaining share directly: sports betting, he argued, works like options in traditional markets, generating the liquidity that makes Kalshi’s economics and politics contracts viable.

Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara flagged tech layoff contracts as among the fastest-growing markets, up over 20% week over week.

She highlighted a market on the so-called Citrini AI doomsday scenario, which models mass job displacement driven by artificial intelligence.

The contract has doubled from 15% to 30% probability since launch, a move Lara attributed to the same research that has rattled equity markets including DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH).

Kalshi listed the market, she said, precisely because the debate was already moving stocks.

The Offshore Question

Mansour was pointed about Polymarket, calling its offshore, unregulated model a fundamentally different business.

The war and missile markets that recently drew scrutiny on Polymarket are already illegal under U.S. law, he noted, meaning the regulatory crackdown investors fear may have limited reach onshore.

The more important point for investors is the moat.

Kalshi spent four to five years obtaining federal exchange and clearing house licenses before launching a single product. Mansour compared it to getting a banking license.

Few competitors have been willing to replicate that process, and those now trying are discovering how difficult it is.

That grueling regulatory history, he argued, is what separates Kalshi from offshore rivals long-term.

Legal War Continues

Kalshi scored a significant win when the Third Circuit ruled states cannot block sports prediction market contracts. Nevada’s injunction remains in place. Arizona’s criminal charges are ongoing.

For investors, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) carries the most direct public exposure.

The Ninth Circuit hears oral arguments April 16 in the consolidated Nevada case, a ruling that could determine whether Kalshi’s 50-state model survives. DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) remain the clearest casualties if it does.

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