Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holding near $70,000 has renewed optimism among retail traders after a sharp first-quarter decline.

Counter-Trend Rally Concerns

In his Apr.8 podcast, macro analyst Benjamin Cowen described Bitcoin's recent price action as a "textbook" counter-trend rally, warning that such moves often trap late buyers before a larger decline resumes.

He noted that Bitcoin is approaching a key bear market resistance band, the 20-week simple moving average and 21-week exponential moving average, currently near $78,000 to $79,000 and trending lower.

Historically, in prior cycles such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin has rallied into this zone, formed a lower high, and then fallen to new lows.

"In bear markets, it does tend to act as resistance, especially near the end of several-month rallies," Cowen explained.

Cowen estimates there is a 70% to 75% probability that Bitcoin will revisit or break below its February lows, with a potential market bottom forming around October 2026.

Midterm Market Psychology

Cowen also described typical mid-cycle behavior, where early investors sell during the initial downturn, the market then rebounds, and FOMO draws buyers back in. This often precedes another selloff, trapping late entrants.

He added that several key indicators have not yet confirmed a market bottom, including:

  • The MVRV Z-score remaining above zero
  • Bitcoin trading above its realized price
  • Supply metrics not yet signaling peak fear or capitulation

Until liquidity conditions improve and macroeconomic data stabilizes, Cowen advises treating rallies into the high-$70,000 range as potential opportunities to reduce risk rather than confirmation of a breakout.

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