Anthony Scaramucci owns a piece of SpaceX. He also invested in xAI. And he’ll be the first to tell you none of it makes conventional sense.

“The cult of personality around Elon Musk gives his companies an excessive premium that is off the charts,” the SkyBridge Capital founder wrote on X. He called Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) a stock that “defies conventional metrics.” Then he explained why he bought into SpaceX anyway.

The reason is Amazon.

The $20 Million Mistake He Won’t Repeat

A $10,000 investment in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) at its 1997 IPO would be worth nearly $20 million today. Scaramucci missed it.

“I’m not making that mistake again,” he wrote.

SpaceX has confidentially filed for what may be the largest IPO in history, targeting a raise of up to $75 billion at a valuation that has since climbed above $2 trillion, more than triple the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.

Polymarket currently gives a 62% probability that the listing lands in June.

The Bet Scaramucci Is Actually Making

His bull case has two legs. The first is Starlink. The satellite internet service accounts for between 50% and 80% of SpaceX’s total revenue, and analysts broadly consider it the only part of the business that currently justifies the price tag.

The second is more speculative: orbital data centers, AI compute powered by solar energy, beamed back to Earth via satellite. Scaramucci called the concept “fascinating” and said he expects it to move from science fiction to reality.

SpaceX’s stated ambition is to launch 100 terawatts of AI computing capacity per year into orbit, though the technology remains theoretical.

Scaramucci’s read is that the premium is real and probably excessive. His point is that it was excessive on Amazon too.

What Prediction Markets Are Pricing

Polymarket traders currently place a 39% probability on SpaceX closing its first trading day between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, with a 26% chance of landing between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion.

For investors without access to the private round, EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS) holds roughly 3% of SpaceX equity. Tesla remains the most liquid publicly traded proxy for Musk exposure ahead of the listing, though the stock has faced significant headwinds in recent months.

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