President Donald Trump‘s two-week ceasefire sent WTI crude below $100 a barrel. It did not meaningfully break the huge refiner’s margin.
On Thursday, the 3-2-1 crack spread — the gap between the cost of raw crude and the value of the gasoline and distillate it produces — held above $41 a barrel.
For U.S. refiners, the Iran ceasefire created a near-perfect windfall: cheaper feedstock on the input side, still-elevated product prices on the output side, and a spread that is compressing from its war-era peak but has not come close to normalizing.
Six refiners sitting on that spread — and still trading at forward price-to-earnings multiples of 7x to 12x — are the names to watch into earnings season.
Chart: Crack Spread Remains Historically Elevated After Trump’s 2-Week Ceasefire
The chart below tells the story cleanly.
The 3-2-1 crack spread spiked from below $20 in late 2025 to above $52 at the height of the Iran conflict, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tightened refined product supply globally.
After the ceasefire announcement, it pulled back sharply from that peak. But at $41 Thursday, it remains nearly double the level it was trading before the war began in late February.
6 US Refiners To Watch Into Earnings
| Company | YTD | NTM P/E | Next Earnings | EPS Est. | Rev. Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) | +24.41% | 11.3x | Apr 29, 2026, After-Market | $0.86 | $35.52B |
| Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) | +44.66% | 11.9x | Apr 30, 2026, During-Market | $2.51 | $29.87B |
| PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) | +49.36% | 7.0x | Apr 30, 2026, Pre-Market | $0.06 | $7.50B |
| HF Sinclair Corp. (NYSE:DINO) | +22.01% | 9.4x | May 1, 2026, Pre-Market | $0.49 | $6.84B |
| Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE:PARR) | +67.89% | 7.1x | May 1, 2026, After-Market | $0.97 | $1.78B |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC) | +37.18% | 10.4x | May 5, 2026, Pre-Market | $2.08 | $30.82B |
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