Avis Budget Group Inc (NASDAQ:CAR) shares are tumbling Friday as traders reassess an overheated short squeeze run that pushed the stock into record territory even while the fundamental backdrop stays messy.

The pullback comes after a roughly 160% rally over the past month, with shares hitting around $250 on Tuesday, a level that left the stock looking stretched and near resistance.

Short Squeeze Momentum Keeps Driving The Story

The pullback is taking shape while major indices are mixed, with the Dow Jones sliding and the Nasdaq-100 slightly higher, and short squeeze run dynamics remain the main narrative.

The stock's recent melt-up has been tied to a technical squeeze setup, with short interest cited at 48.28% and retail chatter described as "extremely bullish," pulling in momentum traders and options activity.

The same coverage also flags "deeply challenged fundamentals," including an $856 million GAAP net loss last quarter and a roughly $518 million impairment charge tied to its U.S. EV fleet.

RSI Signals Extreme Overbought Conditions

At $265.81, the stock is trading 73.8% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), the stock's average price over the last 20 sessions, which suggests the move has stretched far beyond its recent trend. It's also 105.7% above the 100-day SMA, indicating the intermediate trend is still pointed up even after Friday's drop.

The relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, is 91.90, which signals extreme overbought conditions where pullbacks can accelerate quickly if buyers step back. The RSI first entered overbought territory on 2026-03-31, aligning with the late-stage "melt-up" feel of the recent run.

Over the last 12 months, the stock is up 267.86%, a backward-looking snapshot that matches the stock's position near the top of its $62.21 to $297.98 52-week range. One longer-term caution flag is the death cross in January (50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA), which can linger as a risk marker even when price is ripping higher.

  • Key Resistance: $298.00 — near the 52-week high area where sellers often show up first.
  • Key Support: $265.50 — a near-term "line in the sand" around the current trading zone.

Analyst Consensus Sits Below Current Levels After Recent Target Cuts

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Hold Rating with an average price target of $128.50. Recent analyst moves include:

  • Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Lowers Target to $97.00) (March 6)
  • Barclays: Equal-Weight (Lowers Target to $95.00) (Feb. 26)

CAR Shares Slide Friday Afternoon

CAR Stock Price Activity: Avis shares were down 8.41% at $272.10 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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